The Committee does not forecast. Does the Committee date recessions for individual countries in the euro area? No, the sole objective of the Committee is to date recessions for the euro area as a whole. Why does the Committee not date recessions for individual countries? The Committee wants to make sure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area.
Adopting a dating criterion that refers solely to aggregate Euro-area economic activity achieves this objective most transparently. Note that since October the Committee has dropped its requirement that peaks or troughs mark turning points in economic cepr business cycle dating committee in most countries of the euro area. It is thus possible that the EU-area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not, and that the business cycle dates differ for the Euro-area and for individual countries.
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In determining the chronology of the euro area business cycle, the CEPR Committee adopted a definition of a recession similar to that used by the National. In determining the chronology of the euro area business cycle, the CEPR Committee adopted a definition of a recession similar to that used by the National.
Macro: Unit 1.1 -- The Business Cycle
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